Crunch time for Bafana: All scenarios for AFCON Last 16 qualification

Bafana Bafana’s fate at the 2023 AFCON is firmly in their hands as they head into their final Group E match against Tunisia on Wednesday.

South Africa had a disappointing start to the tournament, succumbing to a 2-0 defeat to Mali. They bounced back strongly, humiliating Namibia 4-0 in the next game.

The head-to-head record sees Bafana ahead of Namibia [also on three points], who occupy third, while Tunisia languishes at the bottom with a single point.

And on Wednesday, they play their last game at the Amadou Gon Coulibaly Stadium against Tunisia as they eye a place in the Last 16.

Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Cape Verde, Egypt, Senegal, Cameroon, Angola and Burkina Faso have already qualified for the Round of 16. The other eight teams will be decided on Wednesday.

Here are all the possible scenarios for Bafana Bafana:

• Win against Tunisia: Bafana would be placed in the Last 16 regardless of the result in the other game. If Namibia holds Mali, Bafana would top the group and stay in Korhogo. They would welcome the second-placed finishers in Group F.

• Draw against Tunisia: A draw against the Carthage Eagles would guarantee at least third place, potentially securing passage as one of the best third-placed teams, thanks to the positive goal difference. A draw would suffice, as they would finish third if Namibia wins. If the Brave Warriors lose, Bafana would finish second and move to San Pedro to play the winners of Group F.

• Lose against Tunisia: If they lose, and Namibia also loses, they will finish third. Qualification would hinge on a complex interplay of results across other groups if the Brave Warriors win. Tunisia would move above them to four points.

• The slimmest of chances remain open for Bafana even in case of a defeat to Tunisia, but qualification would then hinge on a complex interplay of results across other groups.

WHAT HUGO BROOS AND GRANT KEKANA SAID

Hugo Broos: “The motivation is high, the mentality is so good. They know they can achieve something we all wished for when we came here. They are ready; we will fight for every metre and every second.”

Grant Kekana: “We’re all highly motivated about the Tunisia game. We know the importance of it. We don’t wanna get complacent as to what we’ve achieved in the previous game.”

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