Following a dramatic Friday evening that saw Egypt secure their passage to the knockout stages of the 2025 AFCON and a tense draw between Angola and Zimbabwe, Group B has been whittled down to a final-day shootout.
On Monday, 29 December, the regional rivalry between South Africa and Zimbabwe takes centre stage at the Stade de Marrakech in Morocco
While Egypt [six points] sits comfortably at the summit, the race for the second automatic qualifying spot is wide open. For Bafana Bafana, the goal is clear, and for the Warriors, it is a matter of survival and pride.
THE DECIDING SCENARIOS: WHO GOES THROUGH?
According to CAF Article 74, the primary tiebreaker for teams level on points is the head-to-head record [74.1.1]. Here are the permutations for the final matchday.
1. South Africa Wins
Bafana Bafana finishes on six points. They will secure second place regardless of the result in the Angola vs. Egypt match. If Egypt loses to Angola, South Africa, and Egypt will both have six points, but Egypt will take top spot based on their 1-0 head-to-head win over Bafana.
2. Zimbabwe Wins
Zimbabwe reaches four points, leapfrogging South Africa [three points]. If Angola also beats Egypt, Zimbabwe and Angola will both have four points. Since they drew 1-1, the tiebreaker moves to Goal Difference. Currently, both are at -1. The team with the larger margin of victory on Monday will take second. If GD is equal, the team with more total goals in the group moves ahead.
3. A draw between South Africa and Zimbabwe
Bafana finishes on four points, and the Warriors on two points. South Africa will finish second as long as Angola does not beat Egypt. If Angola beats Egypt, South Africa, and Angola will both have 4 points. Per rule 74.1.1, South Africa would advance because they beat Angola 2-1 in their opening match.
The last time they met, Bafana were hunting World Cup qualification while Zimbabwe were playing for little more than dignity.
Yet, the Warriors’ tooth-and-nail approach nearly derailed their neighbours.
On Monday, the stakes are even higher. Zimbabwe isn’t just playing spoiler. They are playing for a potential spot in the Round of 16 either as runners-up or as one of the four best third-placed teams.
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